Emery doomed to failure by financial minefield and Stan Kroenke, an owner that wants a status symbol rather than success.
Unai Emery’s transfer window activity will either pave the way to success or failure and if it turns out that Arsenal are unable to buy the necessary quality replacements to rebuild the side, then Emery will not remain at Arsenal beyond his current contract.
I’m not implying he can’t do his job and bring back the good times, but then Emery isn’t the problem. Realistically, Arsenal need six quality players to replace its tired and lacklustre core but somehow it’s owner, Stan Kroenke has managed to steer the ship onto the rocks without much effort and if he continues to be at arms length, letting so called ‘professionals’ run the club in the form of Sanllehi and Venkatesham, then the club could struggle for years to come.
It’s simply not a case of the owner being reluctant to spend anymore, the problems are much deeper than that which I’ll highlight shortly, but the owners lack of vision and passion simply add to the negative dynamic.
Kroenke is a businessman, not an Arsenal fan and he has mismanaged Arsenal since the time he arrived. Kroenke allowed others to lead him to a well of undrinkable water, by giving them the latitude to renew lucrative contracts without Champions league revenue.
The state of Arsenal’s transfer paralysis was outlined conclusively in by the Sports Business Institute, which tried desperately hard to unravel the unholy mess Arsenal and Kroenke find themselves in when it noted:
“In recent years Arsenal have been one of the healthier clubs within the Premier League in regard to financial stability, this is evidenced by the fact that since 2002 they have only failed to achieve a pre-tax profit once in that period. This is a clear indication that PSR (PSR is essentially a Premier League specific version of UEFA’s FFP rules) isn’t an issue for them, however there could be a case that the STCC (short term cost control) rule is becoming an issue for Arsenal in regard to player acquisitions.”
‘The problems started for Arsenal when they failed to obtain a top 4 position in the Premier League, this resulted in them missing out on the highly lucrative champions league place for the 2017/18 season (McMahon, 2018). As a result, Arsenal found themselves in somewhat of a financial quandary in regard to their high-profile player contracts, specifically the new contract given to Mesut Ozil and the arrivals of Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick-Aubameyang. The problem stems from the fact that Arsenal have become a yo-yo team but not in the usual sense of the saying;
Arsenal have gone from a team that was constantly secure in the top 4 of the Premier League to a team that is in one year and out the next, this has had knock on effects on their ability to meet the Premier League financial regulations. From a brief look at Premier League accounts Arsenal have the 5th largest wage bill in the Premier League, meaning that any set back on revenues with have a strong effect.
As stated earlier clubs have the ability to increase the standard £7 million wage increase by increasing revenues, however since Arsenal have lost important Champions League revenues this has offset any gains from other revenues that factor into the STCC calculations.
As a result of this Arsenal will be close to the standard £7 million wage cap increase, meaning that Arsenals’ buying power has diminished as they have no room to increase their wages. McMahon (2018) predicted that if Arsenal failed to obtain a Champions League spot for the 2018/19 season they would have to start “robbing Peter’s to pay Paul’s” this is suggesting that Arsenal would have to sell players in order to start signing players, it can be argued that this prediction is valid.’
In short, as I’ve said in the past, it’s the vicious circle of success providing the necessary income to buy quality players, but if the success isn’t there, then all the other aspects fall short.
So, Emery has an impossible job and in the worse case scenario, Arsenal flops next season and he either gets to the stage that he feels he can’t take Arsenal forward because of the financial restrictions or the club feel they need to get someone else who could cope with the limitations, but who on earth would take the job.
They used to talk about the England job being a poisoned chalice, but the position of Arsenal coach may just have eclipsed it.
All the information indicates Arsenal are in deep trouble because of their financial issues and they face the prospect that sales will be the only way of generating the funds they need as Kroenke is reluctant to provide funds.
As I also pointed out in a series of recent articles, Emery may have to dip deep into the Academy to refresh the squad with only two new additions likely.
We will see how good the new management structure is and if they can turn the situation around, but this is a long term project my friends, make no mistake.